Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $963,605$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,010,169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,010,169.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,966$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,624.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,624.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,661$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,440,103$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,650.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,650.7\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,156$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,138.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,138.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $132,589$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,436,650$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,146,152.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 149.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,146,152.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $174,515$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,080.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 127.3)}}\) (asimptote \(170,080.6\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $502,841$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $553,898$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{506,103.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.4)}}\) (asimptote \(506,103.0\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,438$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,180.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 116.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,180.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,959$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $194,876$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,284.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.0)}}\) (asimptote \(222,284.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,562$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,937.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 164.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,937.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,510$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $144,994$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,865.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(143,865.9\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,972$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,208.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,208.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,349$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,334,089$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,345,875.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 180.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,345,875.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $37,117$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,788.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 156.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,788.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $71,337$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,482$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,795.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 203.6)}}\) (asimptote \(87,795.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,783$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 197.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,806.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,234$ on 2020-12-02
