Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $963,605$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,010,169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,010,169.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,966$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,624.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,624.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,661$ on 2020-12-02

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,440,103$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,650.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,650.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,156$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,138.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,138.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $132,589$ on 2020-12-02

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,436,650$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,146,152.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 149.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,146,152.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $174,515$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,080.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 127.3)}}\) (asimptote \(170,080.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $502,841$ on 2020-12-02

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $553,898$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{506,103.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.4)}}\) (asimptote \(506,103.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,438$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,180.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 116.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,180.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,959$ on 2020-12-02

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $194,876$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,284.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.0)}}\) (asimptote \(222,284.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,562$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,937.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 164.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,937.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,510$ on 2020-12-02

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $144,994$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,865.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(143,865.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,972$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,208.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,208.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,349$ on 2020-12-02

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,334,089$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,345,875.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 180.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,345,875.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,117$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,788.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 156.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,788.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,337$ on 2020-12-02

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,482$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,795.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 203.6)}}\) (asimptote \(87,795.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,783$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 197.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,806.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,234$ on 2020-12-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 80%
Venezuela recovered 66%
Argentina recovered 24%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,067$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,619.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 172.6)}}\) (asimptote \(102,619.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $905$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{926.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 164.9)}}\) (asimptote \(926.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,132$ on 2020-12-02